小康示范村总体规划中人口规模预测研究——以南阳新野县李湖村为例

Study of population prediction in planning of well-off village——Taking Lihu village,Xinye County in Nanyang for example

首先分析了影响村镇人口规模的主要因素有计划生育政策、环境因素、产业结构、行政因素等,然后对常用人口预测方法进行了评价,在此基础上以南阳新野县李湖小康示范村为例,根据得到的资料,结合规划区的实际情况和规划人员的能力选择适宜的方法进行预测,通过比较综合,得到规划期的人口规模。

Population is an important factor for regional planning. There are many factors impacting on regional population, such as family planning policy, environment, industry structure, administration and so on. This paper analyzes the current methods of population prediction from their characteristic, requirements, and points out its shortcomings. Taking population prediction of Lihu well-off village planning for example, the article gave some advices to select some proper population prediction methods.