广东省地质灾害预报预警现状与发展对策

State and countermeasures of geological hazards forecasting and warning in Guangdong Province

广东省脆弱的地质环境和高强度的人类活动决定了该省地质灾害的多发性、广泛性和严重性。地质灾害给全省造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,严重制约着广东省的社会经济发展。为此,该省于2004年7月启动了地质灾害-气象预报预警工作。目前主要的预报方法有现象监测预报、数理统计预报、非线性系统理论预报和地球内外动力耦合方法预报。因预报预警工作刚刚起步,所以还存在着缺乏地质灾害基础信息储备、监测手段落后、研究方法带有局限性等问题。论文针对这一问题提出运用地理信息系统技术建立基础信息数据库,引入遥感和全球定位系统技术方法提高监测能力,将非线性科学、计算机科学及人工智能技术引入地质灾害预报预警工作,以解决目前工作和研究中方法的缺陷。

Guangdong Province is a region where geological hazards are very serious and frequent because of the frail geological condition and hight strength exploitation. There are lot of economic loss and casualties induced by geological hazards. The prediction and early warning of geological hazard started in July 2004. At present, the better prediction and warning methods of geological hazards include the phenomenon monitoring method, statistical analysis method, nonlinear system theory prediction method, and coupling analysis method of engogenic and exogenic geological processes. According to the analysis on previous achievements of forecasting and warning research for geological hazards in Guangdong Province, the problems existing in the field are given. The problems include absence of basic database in geological hazards, lag of monitoring method and technology and shortage of study method. Aiming at the main problems, this paper brings forward the development countermeasures including founding the database base by GIS technology, introducing the RS and GPS technology to improve the monitoring ability and importing the nonlinear system theory and artificial neural networks model to make up the deficiency in study method.