货币政策应对股票价格波动的策略研究

The Study of the Strategy of the Monetary Policy towards the Stock Price Volatility

实证研究发现,我国货币供给量对股票价格的影响力度较小且影响的方向不确定,而利率对股票价格的影响力度相对较大且是单一的负向影响,不过两者均不是股票价格的格兰杰原因。当前我国货币政策不具备调控股票价格的能力,我国应该注重培育“运用货币政策工具来影响股票价格”的能力,并密切关注股票价格波动。同时,我国要加快利率市场化步伐,合理运用证券市场信用控制,完善股票质押贷款管理办法,运用窗口指导,将股票价格作为辅助监测指标。

On the basis of empirical research, we discover that the influence of the money supply on the stock price is small and the direction is uncertain. On the other hand, the influence of rate is larger and negative, but they are not the Granger Cause of the stock price. This paper concludes that Chinese money policy hasn＇t the ability to regulate the stock price at present, we should cultivate the ability of ＂influencing the stock price with tools of monetary policy＂, and pay close attention to the stock price fluctuate. At last, this paper provides the policy suggestion such as interest rate marketization; the stock market credit guarantee; stock mortgage loan; the central bank＇s window operation; the stock market be an auxiliary monitoring index.