我国乐透型彩票销量决定因素的定量研究

Quantitative Analysis on Decisive Factors in Sales of Lotto in China

在借鉴国外学术界彩票研究理论与方法的基础上,针对中国彩票业的实际情况,对这些理论与方法加以必要的调整和创新,以我国发行的9种乐透型彩票作为研究对象,通过定量回归这些彩票在各个投注期的销量决定因素,得出如下结论:我国乐透型彩票的生命周期在2～3年左右;我国居民对于每期彩票的价值有个大致的了解,购买彩票的行为至少符合部分理性;彩票的需求弹性小于1;我国“大奖封顶”和“N选7”的特殊规定对于彩票销量的作用为正;福利彩票与体育彩票之间并未形成显著的竞争关系;不同的经济和文化背景导致中、外彩票业存在一些差异。

Based on the method of academic research on lottery at abroad and China practical condition of lottery business, this paper makes necessary adjustment and innovation on this method. Taking the nine kind of lotto issued in China as research subject and analysis on decisive factors in sales by quantitative regression, the conclusion was drawn as follow, the life cycle of the lotto in china is between 2 - 3 years, Chinese people has some idea on the value of the lotto, and buy lottery rationally. The demand plastic of lottery is lower than 1 and the effect of ＂a ceiling to the jackpot＂ and ＂7 in N＂ to the sales is positive. There has no significant competitive relation between welfare lottery and sports lottery. Different economics and culture backgrounds leads to differences in lottery industry between China and foreign country.