基于Multi-Agent的农户生产决策行为对环境的影响分析

Analysis of Farmer Household Decision-Making and Its Effects on Environment Change by Multi-Agent Systems

农户生产决策导致环境问题的发生过程是一个非常复杂的现象,具有极大的不确定性和混沌特征,为此从农户角度对我国农业污染问题产生原因进行理论分析,提出了构建基于Mu lti-Agent的多农户生产决策行为环境影响分析的思路,研究了该系统的基本框架和实现途径及方法。通过该系统模拟不同政策下农户生产决策行为对环境影响,为如何通过实施有关政策促进农业可持续发展,及为有关政府部门制定相应政策提供支持。

Farmer household decision leading to environment change is not only a very complex phenomenon, but also has extremely large uncertainty and chaotic characteristic. Based on a brief analysis of theories about incentive and restrictive mechanism on environment behaviors, the present paper builds a model based on Multi-Agent system for China＇ s agriculture pollution in the sight of farm household. Using the model, author simulated environment change on different policy scenarios and farm sizes. The changing trend basically accords with practical soil quality trend, therefore, it validates the feasibility of this method and model.