技术进步对能源消费回报效应的估算

The estimation of technological progress on the energy consumption returns effects

“回报效应”是能源经济学中的一个著名命题,但在国内尚缺乏实证检验。本文以改革开放以来中国宏观经济能源消费数据为样本,对这一命题进行了计量检验。结果表明,在中国宏观经济层面上,“回报效应”在30—80%波动,而且20世纪90年代的平均回报率要明显低于20世纪80年代。对此进一步分析后本文认为“回报效应”将呈现三种趋势:“回报效应”越来越低;更多地体现为“硬”技术进步方面;更多地体现在生活部门。

Abstract： ＂Returns effects＂ is a familiar subject in energy economics, but it lacks of empirical test at home. This article takes the samples of energy consumption data of China＇ s macro economy since the reform and opening - up and conducts econometric test on this subject. The results show that, on China＇ s c level, ＂returns effects＇fluctuates from 30% to 80%, and the average returns rate in the 1990s is obviously lower than that in the 1980s. After further analysis, the article holds that ＂returns effects＂ shows three types of trends. First, the ＂effects＂ becomes lower and lower. Second, there is more ＂hard＂ technological advancement. Third, it embodies more in the living section.