区域经济增长与信息化因果关系的实证分析

Positive analysis on the causality between the regional economy growth and the informatization

本文首先定义了衡量地区信息化发展水平的信息化发展指数与衡量地区经济增长水平的经济增长指数,接下来采用最新的统计数据对二者进行相关分析,发现中国各地区的经济增长与信息化发展呈现出极强的区域不平衡性,且信息化发展的区域不平衡性更强。而同地区的经济增长与信息化发展水平则呈现出极强的相关性。最后采用葛兰杰因果关系检验方法进一步确定,在信息化与经济发展的互动关系中,信息化为“因”,经济发展为“果”。

Firstly, the Informatization Development Index（IDI） to evaluate the informatization level of the region,and the Economic Growth Index（EGI） to evaluate the economic growth level of the region are defined. Subsequently, the new statistics data are used to analyze the relation between the two indexes. It is found that there is an imbalanced phenomenon among regions in Chinese economy growth and the informatization development. At the same time, the correlation between the economy growth and the informatization development in a same region is evident. At last, using the Granger causality test method, it is found that the informatization is the Granger causality of the economic growth.