摘要
根据自然资源消费生命周期理论、产业结构多元化指数和能源消费结构多元化指数,本文研究了中国能源消费与经济发展变化趋势,分析了中国能源消费和经济发展之间的相互关系。主要结论包括:(1)1953～1990年期间,能源消费和经济增长变化呈现正相关关系,能源是驱动经济发展的主要因素;1990年后,经济的发展不仅是能源驱动,而且是能源和其他驱动因素共同作用的结果;(2)我国能源、煤炭、石油消费强度变化趋势都呈现倒“U”字型规律;1958～1975年期间,能源消费的强度变化和GDP的产出呈现不对称性;(3)一次能源消费增长对我国产业结构的变化影响非常显著;(4)不同发展阶段,能源消费结构的变化对能源消费强度变化影响不同。
Based on a life cycle theory of natural resources consumption,diversification of industrial structure and energy consumption structure,the interaction between the gross domestic product （GDP） and energy consumption is explored in this paper.We find that：（1） from 1953 to 1990,there was a positive correlation between energy consumption and economy growth.After 1990,economic growth was driven by not only energy, but also other factors;（2） changes in energy,coal and oil consumption intensity all showed the inverse U-shaped curves. And the changes of energy intensity and GDP were different;（3） the growth of primary energy consumption had a great influence over the change of industrial structure;（4） the change of energy consumption structure had different impacts on energy intensity during different period.
出处
《中国能源》
2007年第5期30-34,共5页
Energy of China
基金
所长基金支持(06002J01)
关键词
经济发展
能源消费
economy development
energy consumption
