汇率、流动性过剩与财政政策的现实选择

Exchange Rate,Excess Liquidity and the Choice of Fiscal Policy

人民币升值压力是当前流动性过剩的一个重要诱因,但是在全球流动性过剩的环境中,使人民币升值尚无法从根本上解决流动性过剩问题。协调消费、投资和净出口之间的比例关系,促进国际收支平衡是解决流动性过剩问题的"治本之道",也是我国运用财政政策和货币政策进行宏观调控的重要任务。本文运用蒙代尔-弗莱明模型探讨了当前财政政策的定位问题,认为目前比较适合在适度控制资本自由流动的前提下,推行柔性扩张的财政政策。

The increasing pressure for RMB to appreciate is usually cited as a pivotal factor incurring excess liquidity in current Chinese economy.However,against the backdrop of the excess liquidity situation worldwide,further appreciation of the RMB alone cannot solve the excess liquidity problem thoroughly.It can be argued that the more proper solution to solve the excess liquidity problem would be to improve the relationship among expenditure,investment and net export,as well as maintaining the balance of international trade.The above outcome is also crucial for Chinese government's efforts on macro economic control from both fiscal policy and monetary policy perspectives.This paper examines the role of present fiscal policy by applying the Mundell-Flemming Model and the finding suggests that it is more suitable for the soft expansive fiscal policy be in place under the circumstance of current capital account control regime in China.