乐透型彩票购买者心态的定量研究——兼论我国彩票的可投资性被引量：15

Research on Attitude of the Sports Lotto Buyers——The Feasibility of Lotto Investment in China

下载PDF

导出

摘要通过对8种乐透型体育和福利彩票的相关数据分析发现,我国乐透型彩票购买者普遍存在着"控制幻觉"的非理性心态,表现为热号码现象、赌徒谬误、热手效应和随机偏差等群体性特征。这一心态长期而又稳定地存在,并且在不同地区以及体彩和福彩之间有一定程度上的差异;我国各种彩票不具备可投资性;中外彩票购买者心态有许多共同之处,而不同的文化背景又导致了一些差异;制订合理的彩票发行目标,引导人们理性购买彩票,是十分迫切和必要的。 This paper analyzes the relative datum of eight sports and welfare lotto and draws such conclusion.There exists universally illusion of control,an irrational psychology among lotto players,which appears as the phenomenon of hot numbers,the gambler＇s fallacy and the random bias.This attitude exits long and steady and there are some differences in degree among areas or between sports and welfare lottery.Lottery in China cannot be an investment. There are many similar aspects in attitude of the lotto plays between China and aboard,but intercultural background also leads to some differences.It is urgent and important to set up the correct purpose of issuing the lottery and to lead people buy lottery more rational.

作者李刚

机构地区上海师范大学金融学院

出处《体育科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第9期40-48,共9页 China Sport Science

基金上海高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专业基金(RE647)。

关键词乐透型彩票体育彩票心态控制幻觉可投资性 lotto sports lottery attitude illusion of control investment

分类号 G80-05 [文化科学—运动人体科学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献22

1CLOTFELTER C T,PHILIP J COOK.The gambler's fallacy in lottery play[J].Manag Sci,1993,39(12):1521-1525.
2COOK P J,C T CLOTFELTER.The peculiar scale economies of lotto[J].Am Econom Rev,1993,83(3):634-43.
3EDDIE DEKEL.On the evolution of attitudes towards risk in Winner-Take-All games[J].J Economic Theory,1999,(87):125-143.
4FALK R.Randomness-an Ill-defined but much needed concept[J].J Behavioral Decision Making,1991,(4):215-218.
5FARRELL LISA,G LANOT,R HARTLEY,et al.The demand for lotto:the role of.conscious selection[J].J Bus Economic Statistics,2000,(18):228-41.
6GILOVICH T R,VALLONE A TVERSKY.The hot hand in basketball:on the misperception of random sequences[J].Cognitive Psychology,1985,17(33):295-314.
7KAC M.What is random[J].Am Sci,1983,(71):405-406.
8KAHNEMAN D,TVERSKY A.Prospect theory:an analysis of choice under uncertainty[J].Econometrica,1979,(47):263-291.
9KAHNEMAN D,KNETSCH J L,THALER R H.Experimental tests of the endowment effect and the coase theorem[J].J Political Economy,1990,(98):1325-1348.
10KEREN G,C LEWIS.The 2 Fallacies of Gamblers:Type I and Type II[J].Org Behavior Human Decision Processes,1994,60(1):75-89.

二级参考文献16

1KEARNEY, MELISSA. State Lotteries and Consumer Behavior[J]. J Economic Perspectives, 1990,4 (3) : 105-119.
2NG, YEW K. Why do People Buy Lottery Tickets?Choices Involving Risk and the Indivisibility of Expenditure [J].J Political Economy,1965,73:530-535.
3李刚.我国彩票销量决定因素的定量分析[C]..当代中国:发展·安全价值[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2004.225-231.
4周字形.[D].复旦大学,2002.
5刘炜.上海市足球彩票目标市场的研究[A]..上海体育彩票研究中心研究成果汇编(一)[C].上海,2005.225-230.
6SCOGGINS, JOHN F. The Lotto and Expected Net Revenue[J]. National Tax Journal,1995,48(1): 61-70.
7EDDIE,DEKEL. On the Evolution of Attitudes towards Risk in Winner-Take All Games[J]. J Economic Theory, 1999,87:125-143.
8ENRICO, DIECIDUE, et al. The Utility of Gambling Reconsidered[J]. J Risk Uncertainty,2003, (29) :241-259.
9FRIEDMAN, MILTION, LEONARD J SAVAGE. The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk[J]. J Political Economy,1948,56:279-304.
10GARRETT,THOMAS A, RUSSELL S SOBEL. Gamblers Favor Skewness not Risk, Further Evidence from United States Lottery Games [J]. Economics Letters, 1999,63(1):85-90.