政府国库资金、货币供给与货币政策有效性

Treasury Funds、Money Supply and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

政府财政行为对货币政策效应的影响是宏观经济学的一个热点问题,文章从政府资产角度出发,运用1994～2005年中国国库资金季度数据,采用协整分析方法对政府国库资金、货币供给和货币政策有效性问题,作实证检验。研究表明:(1)国库资金增减导致基础货币收缩和扩张,短期内国库资金变动会使货币供应量发生显著的反向波动,国库资金是货币供应量的Granger因,国库资金对货币供应量波动有较高的解释力,央行的货币供给由于国库资金而产生被动性。(2)国库资金与货币政策有效性之间存在密切关系,货币当局将国库资金变量纳入货币政策中介目标监控体系,有助于提高货币政策的有效性,国库资金成为财政政策与货币政策新的结合点。

Government＇s financial action is an important factor that influences the effectiveness of monetary policy. So from the view of the government assets, we want to find the relationship among the treasury funds, money supply and the effective of monetary policy. Based on the data of treasury funds from 1994 to 2005 in China, we find two meaningful results： （1） in the short period, the treasury funds will cause the money supply to fluctuate. The central bank will be passive on money supply because of the treasury funds; （2） there is a strong relationship between the treasury funds and the effectiveness of monetary policy. If the central bank incorporates treasury funds into the monetary intermediate system, the effectiveness of monetary policy will be enhanced considerably. The treasury funds have become new integrated parts between monetary policy and fiscal policy.