灰色模型在承德市需水预测中的应用

Application of the grey model to the water demand forecasting of Chengde

承德市位于河北省东北部,地处滦河和潮白河流域上游地区,为京津的重要水源地,其水环境不仅关系到承德市的用水问题,而且直接影响下游的天津市、北京市和唐山市的用水安全,因此,对其需水量进行科学预测极为重要.根据承德市历年用水资料及其与时间的变化规律,用灰色系统理论建立模型,在满足精度要求的情况下用于需水量预测.并提出灰色模型预测方法可用于对不同水平年需水量的宏观控制,也可用于近期逐年需水量的预测.

Chengde, a city in the Northeast of Hebei Province, is located in the upriver area of the Luanhe River and the Chaobai river basin. Chengde is one of the most important water source areas of Beijing and Tianjin. The water environment of Chengde is not only related to the water consumption problem in Chengde, but also has a great impact on water security of Tianjin, Beijing and Tangshan in the downriv- er area of it. Therefore, it seems extremely important to make scientific forecasting of the water demand in Chengde. Grey model is built to forecast the water demand according to the water consumption data and their change law with time over the years in Chengde under the situation of the accuracy demand to be satisfied. Grey model can be used for the macro-control of the annual water demand of different levels, it can also be used to forecast the water demand year after year in the near future.