城市可持续发展评价方法及其应用

Evaluation method and its application for urban sustainable development

城市是现代化建设的主要载体,是国家实施科教兴国和可持续发展战略的主要基地。城市将各种社会的、经济的、环境的、文化的因素与冲突融为一体,形成一类社会-经济-自然复合生态系统。如何实现城市的可持续发展,是当今世界研究的重要课题之一。城市可持续发展的评价指标和方法是衡量城市生态规划、建设、管理成效的主要依据。以山东济宁市为例,建立了济宁市可持续发展的指标体系,包括经济发展、生态建设、环境保护和社会进步4类45项指标。采用全排列多边形综合图示法评价城市在各个不同时段的建设成效。研究结果表明,济宁市可持续发展综合指数2004年为0.24,处于Ⅳ级水平,可持续发展能力较差;2006年达到0.45,处于Ⅲ级水平,可持续发展能力一般;2010年达到0.62,进入Ⅱ级水平,可持续发展能力较好;2020年达到0.84,进入I级水平,可持续发展能力优良。评价指标全面,方法直观明了,反映了整体大于或者小于部分之和的系统整合原理,评价结果符合实际,可为城市可持续发展提供参考。

City is a kind of complex ecosystem, which is composed of social, economic, environmental and cultural factors. How to achieve a sustainable development is an important problem for most cities in the world. Sustainable development indexing system and the related evaluation methods can largely support urban ecological planning, construction and management. Taking the Jining city, Shandong Province as the case study, the research set up a sustainable development index system. The system consists of 45 indicators of Jining including economic development, ecological construction, environment protection and social progress. The construction effectiveness are evaluated at different urban development phases using Full Permutation Polygon Synthesis Index method. The research results indicate that the complex index of sustainable development of Jining city is 0.24 in 2004, which belongs to class Ⅳ. It will reach to 0.45 in 2007, and 0.62 in 2010, and 0.84 in 2020. Accordingly, the sustainable development ability will be improved from class Ⅳ to class Ⅰ. The Full Permutation Polygon Synthesis Index method is comprehensive and straightforward. It can be a reference for decisionmaking of urban sustainable development.