2001-2006年天津市梅毒流行状况及趋势预测

Analyze and predict trend of syphilis from 2001 to 2006 in Tianjin

目的分析2001-2006年天津市梅毒流行状况,对2007-2009年梅毒流行趋势进行预测性探讨,为卫生部门制定控制梅毒流行策略提供科学依据。方法收集天津市2001-2006年梅毒疫情病例报告资料,用描述性流行病学方法进行分析,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型来预测天津市2007-2009年梅毒流行趋势。结果2001-2006年共计报告性病53 204例,其中梅毒为5 637例,平均年构成比为10.60%,平均年发病率为14.70/10万;梅毒的发病率呈逐年上升的趋势,年平均增长速度为42.66%。经灰色预测的预测模型为:Y^(t)=10.111e0.362(t-1)-4.301,模型的平均误差率为4.167%,精度为好(C=0.091,P=1),显示2007-2009年梅毒报告发病率仍然呈上升趋势。结论天津市梅毒流行将呈上升趋势,建立完善的梅毒监测体系,加强疫情管理,采取综合防治措施控制梅毒发病增长趋势是目前迫切需要解决的问题。

Objective To analyze and predict the trend of syphilis in Tianjin and provide scientific base for syphilis control. Methods Reported cases of syphilis were collected and analyzed using descriptive method from 2001 to 2006. GM （ 1, 1 ） model was applied to predict trends from 2007 to 2009 in Tianjin. Results There reported 53 204 STDs, including 5 637 syphilis cases which accounted for average 10. 60% annually and had an average annual incidence of 14. 70/100 000. Syphilis incidence went up year by year with an average annual increasing rate of 42. 66%. The grey predict model [ GM （ 1, 1 } ] had an average error rate of 4. 167% and good precision （ C = 0. 091, P = 1 ）, which showed ascending trend of syphilis from 2007 to 2009. Conclusion The trend of syphilis was rising and well established surveillance system and control measures should be strengthened.