甘肃省区域经济增长俱乐部空间趋同分析

Analysis on club spatial convergence of regional economic growth in Gansu Province

以甘肃省87个县域1991—2005年人均GDP数据为资料,基于空间马尔可夫链和ESDA方法,研究区域经济增长俱乐部空间趋同的演变特征.结果表明,甘肃省区域经济增长过程中存在着俱乐部趋同现象,在时间上表现为向高收入组和低收入组2端趋同,形成高收入、中高收入、中低收入和低收入4个俱乐部;在空间上表现为区域经济增长和人均收入水平的空间集群,形成河西和陇中南2个明显的集群中心.高收入和低收入趋同俱乐部的稳定性最大且连片扩张,区域经济增长水平和空间结构的两极分化日趋增强.区域与其邻居区域之间存在较强的依赖性,致使一个区域经济的增长不仅依赖于自身的基础和投入,也依赖于其他区域的增长轨迹.

By means of global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses of exploratory spatial data analysis （ESDA）, this paper investigates the spatial dynamics of regional disparities at the county level in Gansu Province by analyzing per capita GDP data during 1991 2004, with the support of ArcView GIS and GeoDA software. Empirical results show that： the overall county-level spatial disparities of regional economy in Gansu Province have been greatly decreased over past 13 years; Moreover, the regions and their neighbors tend to have the similar trends towards shrinking the disparities of regional economy, especially the counties in western or southern Gansu, that is, the relatively high（low） developed county tends to be located nearby other high（low） developed counties more often than expected due to random chance. Local Moran＇s I scatter plots and LISA（local indicators of spatial association） cluster map have been used to test the local pattern of the Gansu economic development. It has been proved that ESDA-GIS spatial analysis makes spatial heterogeneity of economic development more distinctly, and strengthens its visualization.