吉林省城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法

A New Method to Construct Anomaly Series of Climatic Energy Consumption for Urban Residential Heating in Jilin Province

由于中国社会经济统计资料中均缺乏历年采暖能源消费数据,在分析气候变化对采暖能耗的影响时,始终存在着一个瓶颈。为此,提出了一种城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法,这种方法把气候变化因素与相关的社会经济因素(如人口、人均居住面积等)结合在一起,较直观地反映了气候变化对城市住宅采暖耗能的影响。以地处高纬的吉林省为例,利用吉林省历年城镇人口、城镇人均居住面积、采暖度日数以及单位面积采暖耗煤量指标,建立了吉林省历年采暖气候耗能距平序列。结果表明:相对于1971—2000年30a平均气候状况,吉林省2001/2002年的采暖期理论上因气候偏暖可以节约35.98万t标准煤,而2000/2001年采暖期因气候偏冷需要增加15.5万t标准煤。

Lack of climatic energy consumption data in socio-economics in China has become a bottleneck for researches on impacts of climate change on climatic energy consumption, such as residential heating and cooling etc. A method to construct the anomaly series of climatic energy consumption for residential heating in towns and cities is presented. It combines climate factors with socio-economic factors, such as population and per capita residential area, together, and intuitively reflects the impacts of climate on the energy consumption for urban residential heating. Based on four variables： annual town and city population, per capita residential area, heating degree-day （the base temperature is 18 ℃ ） and the standard coal consumption for heating defined in ＂Energy Conservation Design Standard for New Heating Residential Buildings （JCJ26-95）＂, the following conclusions are drawn： theoretically, about 360 thousand tons standard coal for heating in the warmer winter of 2001/2002 could be saved in comparison with the standard energy consumption for the average climate over 1971-2000 and in the colder winter of 2000/2001 extra 155 thousand tons standard coal for heating could be added in Jilin Province.