中国人口死亡水平的空间统计分析

Spatial Analysis on the Level of Mortality in China

文章以模型生命表为基础,对最近3次人口普查得到的各省份人口死亡数据进行修正,并利用基于地理信息系统(GIS)的探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)技术,对修正后的人口死亡水平(用出生时预期寿命表示)的时空变异进行研究,以辨明中国人口死亡水平的空间分布及演变特征。研究结果表明,1981～2000年中国各省份的死亡水平存在正向的空间自相关现象,但自相关程度随时间变动有所降低;死亡水平较高或较低省份与其周围同样较高或较低省份,在空间上更多地趋于集聚而非随机分布。研究结果为引导有限的社会卫生资源流向最需要的人群和地区可以提供一定的依据。

In this paper,population death data coming from three recent censuses were corrected based on model-life table.GIS and ESDA were used to study spatial distribution of the corrected death level so as to explore its spatial and evolvement characteristics.The research showed that: (1) there existed spatial autocorrelation about death level in all provinces from 1981 to 2000,but its degree reduced over time,(2) provinces with higher or lower death level were tend to cluster but not to be stochastically distributed.These results provided some scientific reasons to guide the limited sanitation resources to flow to the regions mostly in need.