摘要
利用常规天气图、数值预报产品、卫星云图以及溃变理论的预报工具V-3θ图,对2005年6月30日至7月2日发生在青藏高原东北侧甘肃省区域性持续暴雨天气过程进行了诊断应用综合分析。结果表明：副热带高压西伸北抬外围西南风气流控制青藏高原东北侧,当东北低涡、西风带的冷空气与西南风交汇时,触发强对流;850-200hPa有深厚的水汽层;700hPa稳定的低涡切变为暴雨提供了强烈持续的辐合上升运动;卫星云图表明持续性暴雨由多个相继生消的中尺度对流系统影响造成的。基于溃变理论的预报方法在西北区域性持续暴雨的起报、结束及落区有很好的预测能力。
On the basis of the routine weather charts, numerical prediction products, satellite cloud pictures and the V-30 diagram from the breaking-up-evolving theory, the regional continual rainstorm process occurred in Gansu to the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau from 30 June to 2 July 2005 is diagnosed and analyzed. The results show that during the heavy rainfall,the subtropical high pressure extended to west and lifted the external southwest current to north, which controlled the northeast party of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau; when the Mongolia vortex, the westerly cold airflow and the southwest wind converged, a strong convection was triggered; there was a deep water vapor level between 850 hPa and 200 hPa and a stable vortex shear on 700 hPa, providing continuously strong rising movement for the heavy rainfall; and several Mesoscale Convective Systems （MCSs） appeared Successively on the satellite cloud pictures. It is concluded that the prediction method based on the breaking-up-evolving theory is capable of forecasting the beginning, ending and areas of continuous heavy rainfall in the Northwest China.
出处
《气象科技》
2008年第1期69-73,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
甘肃省气象科研项目"建立基于数值预报产品的全省中
短期降水解释预报系统"
甘肃省气象局十人计划项目资助
