20世纪90年代以来江苏区域发展均衡性的测度分析

The Measure and Analysis of Regional Development Equilibrium of Jiangsu Province Since 1990s

基于GIS方法对1990年以来江苏区域发展的均衡性进行了测度分析。首先,引入区域重心模型,对江苏省几何、人口、经济(GDP)、外资(FDI)等主要重心的时空偏离进行了可视化测算,然后结合相关统计指标对江苏省区域经济均衡性的时间特征和空间特征进行了系统分析。结果表明:(1)江苏的经济、外资重心相较人口重心有显著的空间偏离,1990年以来的人口重心呈东南向西北,复向西南,再折回西北的倒U型空间位移趋势,经济重心则一直向南偏东方向位移,而外资重心大致以2003年为拐点,之前大体向南位移,之后逐渐向北偏东位移;(2)江苏省区域经济不均衡性总体在加剧,相对发展速率呈现出南北不均衡,县域和市区不均衡,且苏南、苏中、苏北内部不均衡性各有特点;(3)本世纪发展速率加快的县市主要在苏南和苏中空间范围的四个边角带上,呈"口"字型格局,苏北为相对发展速率下降县市的主要分布区;(4)苏南初步形成了东部以苏州无锡为核心的高度发达趋同区和西部的快速发展趋同区,苏北形成了盐城为代表的县域快速成长趋同区和以连云港为代表的县域缓慢发展趋同区。

Based on the geographic information system （GIS） technology, this paper tries to measure and analyze the changing trend of regional development equilibrium of Jiangsu Province since 1990. Firstly, we use the regional barycenter model, take a visible measurement on the temporalspatial distribution and movement tendency of geometric centroid, population centroid, GDP centroid, foreign capital （FDI） centroid, and then combine them with related statistics indexes under the different dimensions to analyze the temporal-spatial characteristic of economic equilibrium in Jiangsu. The conclusions are drawn as follows： （1） Compared to the population centroid, Jiangsu＇s GDP centroid and the FDI centroid show a marked deviation. The population centroid moves from southeast to northwest, to southwest, and again back to northwest, showing a converse ＂U＂ moving trend. The GDP centroid shifts toward southeast. But the FDI centroid takes 2003 as an inflection moving towards the south before that and toward the northeast after that gradually. （2） The economic disequilibrium is mostly turning worse in Jiangsu. The relative development rates present south-north unbalance and county downtown unbalance. And the internal unbalance of the south, middle, north of Jiangsu also have their own characteristics. （3）The counties, which have an accelerating relative development rate in this century is mainly located in the four corners of the southern and middle of Jiangsu, showing a ＂ 口 ＂ shaped pattern, while those with a descending relative development rate mainly in the northern of Jiangsu. and （4） The convergence among the three spatial regions of Jiangsu and within every spatial unit is increasingly stregthened. Southeast Region of Jiangsu demonstrated a highly developed convergence zone at the core of Suzhou ＆ Wuxi, while Northern Regions of Jiangsu shows a rapidly developing convergence zone, which is represented by Yancheng municipality, and a slowly developing convergence zone, which is represented by Lianyungang municipality.