河南省产业结构演进和经济增长关系的实证分析

A Evidential Analysis of the Relation between the Evolution of Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Henan

以1980-2005年统计数据为基础,利用偏离—份额分析方法,系统研究了河南5大经济区产业结构、变迁与区域经济发展之间的关系,为各区域优化产业结构、促进区域经济协调发展提供政策依据。研究结果表明:①相对于全国产业结构演变趋势,河南产业结构水平仍然低下,但河南产业结构的演变趋势符合产业结构演变的一般规律。②河南产业结构演变的空间差异比较明显。③河南产业结构演进对经济增长的影响分为产业结构偏离为负,竞争力偏离份额为负;产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为正;产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为负3种类型。④产业结构变迁对河南各区域经济发展影响较大。研究指出,利用高新技术对河南传统产业进行技术改造,大力发展第三产业,提高河南省产业结构的整体水平,大力发展农产品深加工产业,提高河南省农产品的附加值,应成为今后河南省产业结构调整的战略选择。

This paper, based on the investigation of the statistical figures in the years of 1980 - 2005, using Shift-Share Method model, studies systematically the relation between the evolution of industrial structure and regional economic growth in seven economic regions in Henan. It offers an foundation of policy for optimizing the industrial structure and promoting regional economy development. The paper comes to the conclusion： ①The industrial structure level of Henan, in comparison with the evolntional tendency of industrial structure across the country, remains low, but yet the evolutional tendency of industrial structure in Henan complies with the general rule of industrial structure evolution, ② the spatial difference of Henan＇ s industrial structure evolution is comparatively large; ③ the evolution of industrial structure in Henan that affects the economic growth can be categorized into three types： the shift-share of the industrial structure poses negative, and the shift-share model of competitiveness poses negative; the shift-share of the industrial structure poses positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness poses positive; the shift-share of the industrial structure poses positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness poses negative; ④ the evolution of industrial structure affects greatly the development of the regional economy of Henan. As the results of the researches claim that the technical innovation of Henan＇s traditional industry with high-tech, the vast development of the Third Industry, the expand of Henan＇ s overall level of industrial structure, the growth of deep-processing manufacturing of agricultural products, and the increase of Henan＇ s agrictdtural products subsidiary value would be the strategic choices of the rearrangement of Henan＇ s industrial structure.