摘要
针对桉树易受冻害特点,提出运用极值理论中的第Ⅰ型分布作为桉树引种决策模型,并通过应用永安市1971~2005年共35a的气象观测资料,建立了永安市年极端最低气温的概率分布模型,研究结果表明,永安市年极端最低气温是服从Fisher-Tippett第Ⅰ型极值分布,根据该极值分布可计算Ta(T=5,6,7,8,9,10)内可能出现的极端最低气温,从而为该地区桉树引种、区划以及防止冻害等方面提供参考。
The probability distribution model of annually extremely lowest climate temperature of Yong'an City was set up by applying the first model extreme distribution in the extreme theory and using the basic data of meteorological observation of Yong' an City from 1971 to 2005. The result shows that the distribution of the annually extremely lowest climate temperature is submitted to type Ⅰ of Fisher- Tippett's distribution of limited values, and the estimates for annually probably lowest climate temperature in T years (T= 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10) are computed by applying extreme distribution. Therefore, this paper provided an important basis in the introduction and cultivation of eucalypts.
出处
《福建林业科技》
北大核心
2008年第1期130-132,165,共4页
Journal of Fujian Forestry Science and Technology
关键词
桉树
极值分布
年极端最低气温
决策模型
eucalypt
limited value distribution
annually extremely lowest climate temperature
decision model