突发事件应急能力评价指标体系建模研究

Study of the Evaluation Index System Model of the Emergency Capability on Emergency

突发事件应急能力评价指标体系是测度政府应急能力的重要依据,因此,建构一套系统的、科学的应急能力评价指标体系才能客观地反应一级政府的应急能力的真实能力,找出差距,强化应急能力建设.本文以系统论为理论依据,在提出了建构应急能力评价指标体系的系统性、科学性、可操作性等原则的基础上,应用专家估测法,集成专家的智慧,筛选出科学的符合客观实际的指标,设置了指标集,应用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process)进行综合分析,转化为有条理的、有层次的系统,建构了层次递阶图,与此同时引用了Saaty的1—9标度法把指标由定性转化到定量,构造了判断矩阵,解出每层指标对上一层指标的权重值,为了检验所求得的权重值是否能正确地反映一级政府的实际应急能力,又引用了平均随机一致性指标RI值测度判断矩阵是否具有满意的一致性,建构了突发事件应急能力评价指标价体系模型.在模拟实验建构的突发事件应急能力评价指标体系中,各层判断矩阵CR值小于0.1,全部通过一致性检验,结果证明该模型具有系统性、科学性及可操作性.

Emergency Evaluation System is the ability to measure the ability of an important basis for the emergency, therefore, build a system, the emergency response capability of scientific evaluation index system can be an objective response to the government＇ s emergency response capability of the true capacity, identify gaps, strengthen the emergency response capacity building. Based on the theoretical basis for the system, in proposing the construction of the emergency response capability of the system of indicators of systemic, scientific, operational principles on the basis of expert estimates, the wisdom of integration experts, selected from the line with the objective reality of scientific indicators, set the target set, of AHP （analytic hierarchy process） comprehensive analysis, into a structured,layered system, construction of the hierarchical level, while quoting 1-9 Saaty the scale of the indicators from quantitative to qualitative transformation, a judgment matrix structure, the floor indicator of the level indicator on the right heavy duty, in order to test sought by the weight of whether one can accurately reflect the government＇ s actual response capacity also refers to the average value of RI random consistency indicators measure satisfaction with the judgment matrix consistency, construct emergency response capacity target price evaluation system model. Construction of the simulation Emergency Evaluation Index System, floors judgment matrix CR value is less than 0. 1, all through the consistency test, the results prove that the model is systematic, scientific and operational.