摘要
根据关中地区历史时期洪水灾害史料,分析统计了公元500年-2006年近1500 a间各个世纪洪水发生频率,并对此时间段内气候变化进行分析,得出:关中地区历史时期气候冷暖交替变化较为频繁,洪水灾害多。在公元600-1000年、公元1300-1900年及公元1900-2000年,百年尺度洪灾出现频率分别为21次、34次、12次。同时分析得出该地区洪水灾害频率与气候变化有明显的对应关系,即百年尺度洪灾的出现往往与气候的异常波动有密切关系,气候的波动变化导致关中地区降水量年内分配不均匀和年际变化,从而造成该地区洪灾的频繁发生,洪灾在气候突变时出现频率高,气候平稳期出现频率较低。另外根据历史时期灾害频率的统计,预测关中地区近几年发生大规模洪水的可能性小,而小规模洪水发生的频率会较大。
According to analysis of the data of flood disaster in Guangzhong region in different historical period, the flood frequency is statisticed per century from 500 to 2006 and the climate variation is analysised during the 1500 years. The following conclusion can be drawn: the climate alternate change frequency is high and the flood disaster is severe in the history. The hundred-year flood disaster apperaring frequency is 21, 34, 12 in the 600-1000 A. D, 1300-1900 A. D and 1900-2000 A. D respectively. Simultaneously, we also draw a conclusion that the climate and the flood disaster have a close correlation. The correlation is that the apperance of hundred-yesr flood disaster often goes with the climate exceptional undulation and the climate undulation induces the precipitation nonuniformity, which induced the flood disaster highly frequently occurrence in the local. The flood disaster frequency is higher when the climate breakly variety while it is lower when the climate ease up.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第2期246-250,共5页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40571004)
教育部人文社会科学研究基地重大招标项目(05JJD770014)
关键词
洪灾
气候变化
历史时期
关中地区
flood disaster
climate change
historical period
Guangzhong region