哈尔滨市地质灾害气象诱因分析及监测预警

Meteorological cause analysis and early warning of geological disasters in Harbin City

通过对哈尔滨市地质灾害发生历史规律的分析,建立了历史个例库;从地质环境背景着手,分析了地质灾害的气象诱因,重点研究了降水在地质灾害形成中的作用及其相关关系;根据气象地质灾害与前期及当日降水的关系,应用统计预报方法建立地质灾害潜势预报模型,对气象地质灾害发生的危险等级进行了可能性描述。所建立的地质灾害潜势预报系统、临近预报系统和监测报警系统,在实际预报业务中取得了很好的效果。

According to the historical regularity of geological disaster in Harbin ,the historical example database was established. Based on the background of geology environment, the geological disasters-inducing cause were ana- lyzed. Specially, the role of precipitation in formation of geological disasters and their relation were researched. Accoming to the relationship between the meteorological geological disaster and prophase and current precipitation, this article sets up latent trend forecast model of geological disasters using statistical forecast method and describes the possible dangerous grade of the forecasted meteorological geological disaster. In the practical forecast operation , the model was used in the flood season in 2007 with a good effect.