我国货币政策信贷传导渠道:理论模型及实证分析

The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy in China:Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

在一般均衡模型中,货币政策信贷传导机制主要通过利差的均衡调整过程来实现。基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析结果表明,1998-2007年期间信贷渠道在我国货币政策传导机制中占有重要地位,货币政策效果不佳与信贷渠道梗阻密切相关。短期货币政策操作应充分关注信贷市场动态状况。坚持堵疏结合的原则切实缓解流动性过剩,提高紧缩性货币政策的效力。

In the general equilibrium model, the transimission mechanisms of monetary policy works through the balanced adjustment process of spread. Analysis resulting from impulse response function shows that credit channel plays a significant role in the monetary policy transmission in China in the period of 1998 - 2007, and monetary policy effectiveness is so closely related with obstructions of credit channel. Short-term monetary policy operations should fully concern dynamic conditions of credit markets. Comining plugging and dredging, monetary authorities must alleviate excess liquility problem in order to enhance the effectiveness of tightening monetary policy.