作物生长模拟模型在我国农业气象业务中的应用研究进展及思考

The Progress in Application of Crop Growth Simulation Models to Agro-meteorological Services in China

近年来我国农业气象科研和业务部门紧密结合,开展了作物生长模拟模型应用于农业气象业务的研究和应用试验工作。基于国外作物生长模拟模型的应用进展以及我国农业气象业务的现状,简要分析了农业气象业务中应用作物生长模拟模型的必要性和紧迫性。针对单点理论模型能否在业务中应用的疑惑,详细讨论了国外引进作物生长模型的本地化和单点理论模型在区域尺度上模拟应用等两个关键问题的重要性和技术方法。重点介绍了近年来我国气象系统农业气象科研和业务部门在推进作物生长模拟模型在农业气象业务应用方面所做的工作,即基于东北玉米、华北小麦和江南双季稻生长模型的气象条件影响评价和产量动态预测方法等。最后从改进完善作物生长模拟模型、探讨区域模拟应用技术及稳健推进业务应用和实施等方面分析了目前存在和出现的问题,以及可能的解决途径。

The research and application of crop growth simulation models in agro-meteorological services were carried out in recent years in China. The necessity of applying crop growth simulation models to agro-meteorological services was analyzed on the basis of reviewing application of crop growth simulation models around the world and the state of agro-meteorological services in China. The methodology of localization research of foreign models and the approach of application of model from single site to regional scale were discussed. It is focused on the progress in application of crop growth simulation models to agro-meteorological services in China, and effect assess- ment of meteorological condition on crops growth and dynamic forecasting of crop yield by using maize growth modal in North-East China, wheat growth model in North China and double cropping rice model in the middle Yangtze River valley. Finally, the existing problems and possible resolution in applying crop growth simulation models were proposed from mechanism improve-ment, regional scale application, as well as operational implement.