福建泉州地区降水量长期变化和未来趋势分析

TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN QUANZHOU REGION,FUJIAN PROVINCE,SOUTHEAST CHINA DURING 1996～2003

利用福建泉州地区共九个测站1961～2003年的月平均降水量资料,运用趋势分析和EMD(Empirical Mode Decomposition)方法,根据其独特的地理特征,将该地区划分为沿海和山区两区域,分别对两区域近44年来降水量变化的基本特征进行比较和分析,结果表明:(1)沿海和山区年降水量距平百分率都呈上升趋势,沿海上升趋势较山区更加明显。(2)春雨期、夏季和冬季两地区的降水距平百分率的变化与年变化一致,而霉雨期和秋季,则呈相反趋势。(3)1980年代之后,沿海地区降水距平百分率趋势的变幅明显大于山区,山区年代际降水量正距平出现的时间滞后于沿海地区。(4)泉州年降水量总体单调增加,并且呈现出4种不同尺度的变化周期,分别为2～3年、6年左右、10～11年和23年左右的波动周期。

Based on geographic characteristics, Quanzhou region in Fujian province in Southeast China is divided into two areas： coastal and mountainous areas. The basic features of precipitation change in the two areas during 1961 - 2003 are analyzed and compared using the precipitation abnormity percentage（PAP） and the empirical mode decomposition（EMD） methods in this paper.The results show the increase of precipitation abnormity percentage in these two areas during this time period, especially in the coastal area. The changes of PAP in early spring, summer and winter are the same as the annual change, but opposite trends are shown during the Meiyu and autumn. In the late 1980s, the percentage of PAP change from the minimum to the maximum in the coastal area is more than the mountainous area. Further more, the total annual precipitation in Quanzhou region is autonomously increasing during this time. The fluctuating periods have four types of 2 - 3 years, about 6 years, 10 - 11 years and about 23 years, respectively.