气候变暖对中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑采暖降温年耗电量的影响

Impacts of Climate Warming on Electricity Consumption for Heating and Cooling in the Hot Summer and Cool Winter Zone of China

20世纪80年代中期以来的气候变暖,尤其是90年代中期以来的气候显著变暖带给社会经济发展的利与弊,一直以来受到广泛关注。气候变暖对于建筑耗能,尤其是对采暖和降温总耗能的影响很值得研究。论文以主要使用电能进行空间调节的中国夏热冬冷地区为对象,以《夏热冬冷地区居住建筑节能设计标准JCJ134-2001》中所规定的采暖、降温耗电量限值为依据,研究了气候变暖对该区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量、降温年耗电量及采暖降温年耗电总量的影响。结果表明,1986年以来的气候变暖,尤其是1996年以来的气候显著变暖,理论上使夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖年耗电量降低;同时增加了相当一部分地区居住建筑单位面积降温年耗电量;除个别地区外,气候变暖理论上使中国夏热冬冷地区居住建筑单位面积采暖降温耗电总量普遍下降。

Benefits and disadvantages caused by global wanning on socio-economic development have been paid much attention. It is without question that climate warming can save heating energy consumption and can increase cooling energy consumption. However, it is complicated that the impact of climate warming on the total energy consumption for heating and cooling. Meanwhile, seasonal and spatial variations of climate warming can cause different impacts, even in a same architecture thermal design zone. In this paper, impacts of climate wanning since the mid-1980s and the impacts of distinct climate warming since the mid-1990s on heating and cooling electricity consumptions in the hot summer and cool winter zone of China, where people use electricity for heating and cooling their living rooms, are analyzed, respectively. Based on the definition of Design Standard for Energy Efficiency of Residential Buildings in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zone, impacts on total electricity consumption for heating and cooling are analyzed too. There are conclusions：climate warming since the mid-1980s, especially since the mid-1990s, has saved the heating electricity consumption in most areas and increased the cooling energy consumption in many areas. In general, climate wanning has saved the total electricity consumption for heating and cooling in hot summer and cool winter zone except few areas.