甘肃省固定资产投资与经济增长关系的实证研究

A Case Analysis of the Relation Between Fixed Assets Investment and Economic Growth in Gansu Province

利用计量经济学方法,对甘肃省1993—2006年的地区生产总值(GRP)及固定资产投资(FA)两时间序列数据进行了协整关系检验、误差修正模型(ECM)分析以及Granger因果检验。模型的分析结果表明:甘肃省的固定资产投资对经济增长有很大的拉动作用,但是两者并不存在长期协整关系和双向的因果关系。

Adopting the method of metrological economics, the paper carries out the coordination-integration test, error correction model （ECM） analysis and Granger cause-effect test on two time-sequential data concerning gross regional product （GRP） and fixed assets investment of Gansu Province from 1993 to 2006. The model analysis indicates that the fixed assets investment considerably accelerate the economic growth, but there exists neither a long-term coordination-integration relationship nor a two-way causality, so the present author puts forward three countermeasures accordingly.