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土地规划中人口预测的方法及应用─—以玉林市为例 被引量:11

The Methods of Population Forecast and Their Application in Land Planning(Taking Yulin Municipality as Example)
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摘要 人口预测是一切社会经济活动预测的前提,本文论述了宋健模型等几种人口预测的方法及适用范围,并用它们分别对玉林审的总人口、非农人口和城镇人口进行了计算预测.最后,将此预测结果应用于玉林审的土地利用总体规划,测算出玉林市规划期内耕地及建设用地的需求量及耕地(基本农田)保护目标。 Population forecast is the prerequisite of all forecastes of socil economic activities. This thesis discusses several methods of population forecast such as Song Jian Mode and their limits,and uses them to calculate the total population,nonagricaltural population,cities and towns population of Yulin municipality in the planning periods. The forecast results are finally applied in land use planning of Yulin,Calculating the needs of cultivated land and constructed area in each planning period,drawing up the fundermental cultivated land protection goal.
作者 童新华
出处 《广西师院学报(自然科学版)》 1997年第2期20-25,共6页 Journal of Guangxi Teachers College(Natural Science Edition)
关键词 人口预测 土地利用 土地规划 玉林市 population forecast song Jian Model land use planning
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