能源价格对宏观经济的影响——基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)的分析

The Impact of Energy Price Increases on Macro-economy:An Analyses based on CGE Method

石油与煤炭价格上涨将对中国经济造成什么样的影响,其影响度与中国现阶段的经济特点的相关性,以及如何应对能源价格上涨的影响,都是政府宏观决策需要研究的重大问题。本文运用CGE方法研究了这些问题,尤其是对石油与煤炭价格上涨影响程度的对比,填补了这一方面的研究空白。结果表明:能源价格上涨对中国经济具有紧缩作用,但对不同产业的紧缩程度不一致,能源价格除了影响经济增长,还将推动产业结构变化。对大多数产业而言,相同比例的价格上涨,煤炭的紧缩作用是石油紧缩作用的2至3倍;对于非能源密集型的服务业紧缩幅度也达3倍,石油和煤炭的经济紧缩作用程度不一致与目前中国能源消费结构基本吻合,2007年中国煤炭消费占一次能源的70%,而石油消费仅占20%。本文最后就如何应对能源价格上涨的影响提出建议。

In recent years, we have seen great increase in energy prices. The impacts of energy price increases on Western countries＇ economy drew great attention, and Western scholars did a large number of related research. However, very few researches on the subject were done in China. Different studies have shown that energy prices have contraction effects on economy. Since 1993, China became a net oil imported country. Recent oil price increase is the first time for China to face the oil price shock. Coal prices have also kept rising in recent years. What kinds and how great of the impact will coal and oil price increases have on China＇s economy are highly related with the China＇s economic characteristics, and both are import questions need great research effort to support macro-policy decision making. This paper studies these questions, particularly comparisons of coal and oil price impacts using computable general equilibrium （CGE） method, and therefore fills the research gap. The results show that the impacts of energy price increase have contraction effects, and the levels of contraction are different significantly across industries. This will not only affects the economic growth but also impel the industrial structure change. For most industries in China, the contraction effects of coal are 2 to 3 times that of oil for the same price increase, and conclusion holds even for the less energy-intensive service industries. The impact differences of coal and oil are in line with the observed energy consumption structure of China, which coal takes 70% and oil takes 20% of the primary energy consumption. This paper put forward some suggestions on how to deal with the energy price increases.