发展中的东盟“中国观”：从威胁到机会？

ASEAN's Changing Perceptions of China:From Threat to Opportunity?

本文旨在分析为何东盟国家曾经将中国视为威胁,如今却转变观念,将中国视为促进地区稳定和一体化的重要推动力。第一部分将阐述东盟国家对中国的官方立场的变化,即从"中国威胁论"向"中国机会论"的转变。在80年代,当中国的经济开放促进了其与南部周边国家之间的关系时,这种观念的转变尤为突出。第二部分认为,在欧美日经济发展呈现出保护主义趋势,并遭遇发展瓶颈的情况下,中国的发展为东盟国家的经济增长提供了新契机。同时,笔者着重分析了中国从地区的不稳定根源向地区安全保障者转化的原因。第三部分指出,尽管中国与东盟国家之间建立起了特殊关系,但中国无法排斥其他大国,尤其是日本与美国在该地区的影响力。

This article is intended to analyze why ASEAN nations are increasingly observing the once intimidating PRC into an opportunity for assuring stability at all levels and fostering regional integration. In section I, the paper remarks how official positions shifted from considering China as a threat to an opportunity, in particular since the 1980＇ s, when China＇ s economic open-up had a positive impact on its ties with its southern neighbors. In section 2, the article argues that China＇s development is offering new opporyuruties for growth to ASEAN countries in face of the protectionism and limitations of American, European and Japanese economies. Furthermore, the article observes how China has turned from a source of instability to a guarantor of regional security. In section 3, the paper notes that even ff China is somehow establishing a privileged relation with ASEAN countries, Beijing is unlikely to entirely neutralize the influence of other big powers in the region, in particular Japan and the United States.