岩石公路隧道塌方风险事故树分析

Fault Tree Analysis of the Collapse Risk in Rock Highway Tunnel

塌方是岩石隧道施工中的常见灾害。总结了岩石公路隧道塌方发生的几大因素及发生机理。利用事故树理论(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA),结合上述因素分析,编制了岩石公路隧道塌方分析事故树,并结合西部某公路隧道工程,对该隧道中潜在塌方因素进行了定量分析,计算得出塌方事故的发生概率、各底事件的关键重要度,提出了相应的管理措施和控制建议。

Collapse is the common disaster during the construction of rock highway tunnel. This paper summarized the classification of collapse causes and the logic connections among them. A risk analysis model of rock highway tunnel collapse was established based on analysis of tunnel collapse events by the theory of Fault Tree Analysis （FTA）. At the same time, a quantitative analysis of certain highway tunnel in the West China by FTA was studied, and the probability of the collapse and critical importance of every bottom incident were gained. A risk assessment of the potential causes of rock highway tunnel collapse was done in order to provide some corresponding advice and measure to control or reduce the probability of the tunnel collapse.