虚拟经济的基本理论及研究方法

Fundamental Theory and Research Methodologies for Fictitious Economy

本文阐述虚拟经济(Fictitious Economy)的基本理论及研究方法。虚拟经济是指虚拟资本以金融平台为主要依托的各种活动。虚拟经济是与实体经济相对应而在经济系统中存在的经济活动模式,包括结构及其演化。虚拟经济是经济中的软件。虚拟资本的概念最初是马克思提出的,现已扩展到包括信用资本,知识资本和社会资本。虚拟经济的发展大体上可以分为以下五个阶段:闲置货币的资本化,生息资本的社会化,有价证券的市场化,金融市场的国际化及国际金融的集成化。虚拟资本的运动规律在于:(1)交换-再交换的主要运动过程;(2)价格的不确定性造成了投机的可能;(3)膨胀带来了相应的风险;(4)虚拟资本的运动不能直接创造社会财富。另外,虚拟经济系统具有复杂性、介稳性、高风险性、寄生性和周期性。虚拟经济领域的科研问题包括虚拟经济和实体经济之间的关系,虚拟经济活动中的制度因素,虚拟经济中风险的产生和防范,虚拟经济的评价体系等。最后,本文描述了六种虚拟经济的研究方法:复杂科学方法,不确定型决策方法,群体决策方法,支持决策的复杂数据分析方法,数理金融学方法和计算机模拟方法。

In this paper, the author describes the fundamental theory and research methodologies in the field of fictitious economy. Fictitious economy refers to all activities of fictitious capital mainly based on financial platform. Compared with real economy, fictitious economy is another economic pattern, including its structure and evolution, existing at economic system, which can be viewed as “ software” of economy. Although the concept of fictitious capital was initiated by Karl Marx, it has been expanded to include credit capital, knowledge capital and social capital. According to this, the development of fictitious economy has five stages： （i） capitalization of spare money, （ii） socialization of profitable capital, （iii） marketization of priced security, （iv） internationalization of financial market, and （v） integration of global finance. The exchange and re-exchange is a major movement of fictitious capital. While the uncertain price of fictitious capital creates the possibility of profitable investment, its expansion produces risk and its movement could not directly increase social wealth. The system of fictitious economy has five characteristics such as complexity, stability, high-risk, parasitism, and periodicity. This paper outlines the challenging research problems, including relationships between fictitious economy and real economy, regulatory factors, risk analysis and prevention, and evaluation system in fictitious economy. In addition, it elaborates on six research methods, known as complexity science, decision making under uncertainty, group decision making, complex data analysis for decision support, mathematical finance and computer simulation to deal with fictitious economy problems.