我国肺结核发病率的发展动向及预测研究

Developing Trend and Forecast Research of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Disease Incidence Rate in China

目的:揭示我国肺结核发病率的发展方向,为预防工作的顺利开展提供事前预测工具。方法:本文采用灰色GM(1,1)模型及其改进形式对过去十年我国肺结核发病率的统计数据加以分析处理,得到最优灰色模型,并通过该模型对我国未来几年肺结核发病率情况作出预测。结果:通过该最优模型对我国未来几年肺结核发病率的预测可知,若按照目前这种形势发展下,我国肺结核发病率将逐年升高,且在2013年将突破100/10万人次结论:肺结核发病率在我国有上升的趋势,若不加以控制,将威胁整个民族的健康,加强基础卫生医疗设施的建设,完善医保体制改革,做到早发现、早治疗仍是我国未来几年控制肺结核的重点工作。

Objective： To promulgate the development direction of the pulmonary tuberculosis disease incidence rate in our country, provided. Methods： In this paper, grey GM （1,1） model and improve the form of the past decade of China＇s tuberculosis incidence rate of the statistical analysis of data processing, get the optimal gray model, and adopted the model of China＇s tuberculosis incidence rate of the next few years given the situation Forecast. Results： Through the optimal model for the next few years China＇s tuberculosis incidence rate forecast indicates that if the present situation of this development, China＇s tuberculosis incidence rate will increase year by year, and in 2013 will exceed 100/10 million. Conclusions： TB incidence rates in China are on the rise. If unchecked, it would threaten the entire nation＇s health.So strengthening basic health care facilities construction, improve the medical insurance systems, early discovering and treating is still the key work in China＇s tuberculosis control in the coming years.