区域主导产业选择方法研究进展

Advancement of the Methods of Regional Leading Industry Selection

区域主导产业一直是地理学与经济学共同研究的热点,已有的各种选择方法广泛应用于不同等级地域单元主导产业的确立和培育。在全球化和区域一体化背景下,区域内涵发生变化,区域主导产业呈现出新的特点,区域主导产业选择方法也在快速发展,其方法体系正在形成。文章总结了不同发展阶段区域主导产业的内涵,归纳出13种区域主导产业选择方法,根据选择基准的特点划分了两类选择模型:单基准模型和多基准模型,并结合具体案例对其中比较典型的DEA模型、钻石理论修正模型、灰色聚类模型和层次分析模型进行了对比分析。研究发现:DEA模型能较客观精确地分析区域主导产业;钻石理论模型在理论上有所突破,是今后区域主导产业选择方法发展的新方向;灰色聚类模型和层次分析模型是现有较准确刻画区域主导产业选择的模型。但目前的区域主导产业选择理论与方法都不完善,从发展趋势看,基于功能分区理论和GIS技术的研究应用将得到加强。

The regional leading industry has become an interesting topic in economics and geography. Various kinds of selection methods are widely used to establish and train leading industry in different levels of district unit, from town, county, city to province. In the context of globalization and regional integration, the perspective on region has changed, preferring to study the interconnection between economic activities and territories instead of region itself. And regional leading industry shows a new feature, the selection methods appear fast and their approach system is forming. The article summarized the different development stages of regional leading industry, summed up 13 kinds of regional leading industry selection methods and described their functions and structures, including location quotient method, input-output method, shift-share method, date environment analysis, principal component analysis, factor analysis, BP neural network and so on. Then, the paper classified them into single-criterion model and multi-criteria model, and identified some typical models such as DEA model, Diamond Theory model, Gray Cluster model and AHP model with case analysis. It concluded that DEA model is more scientifically objective, Diamond Theory model is a breakthrough and a new direction in theory, ray Cluster model and AHP model are more accurate and reasonable methods in analyzing regional leading industry. But the regional leading industry selection theoretical studies and approach applications haven＇t been well formed until now. In the future, the theory research based on the plan and policy for development priority zones should be enhanced, and the application of GIS technology will be strengthened.