福建省降水量的趋势变化对旱涝灾害的影响研究

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF PRECIPITATION TENDENCY CHANGE ON DROUGHT/FLOOD IN FUJIAN PROVINCE

应用福建省近45年(1961—2005年)来的降水资料,研究年降水量、干旱灾害、暴雨洪涝灾害的趋势变化特点。研究表明,近45年来福建省的年降水量有一定的增加趋势,但增加趋势不显著,增加最明显的地区在中南部沿海地区;福建省的干旱灾害有减少的趋势,其中夏旱减少最明显,其次是春旱;福建省的暴雨日数和暴雨过程都有一定的增加趋势,其中过程性暴雨增加更明显,1990年代以后是暴雨日数及过程性暴雨增加最明显的时期,洪涝灾害明显增多;虽然旱灾总的趋势是减少,但出现了有记录以来最严重的夏旱年。降水变化导致福建的极端旱涝灾害出现的机率增加。

Based on precipitation data in the last 45 years, the features of tendency variation of annual precipitation and drought/flood damage are analyzed in Fujian province. The results show that annual precipitation tends to increase moderately in the long-term tendency, the positive tendency is more significant in the middle-south coastal area than in other areas of Fujian. A decreasing trend of drought damage appears in Fujian, by the largest extent for summer drought, followed by spring drought. Both the number of days and process-length heavy rains tend to increase, the latter being more significant. Since the 1990s, particularly, their significant increases have led to dramatic rises of the frequency of flooding damage. Meanwhile, although the trend of drought is decreasing, a summer drought has occurred that is the most severe in records. Precipitation change is favorable to the increasing frequency of extreme drought/flood damage in Fujian.