货币政策对居民就业影响实证分析

The Relationship Between Monetary Policy and Employment

基于封闭经济下一般均衡分析框架,通过将内生劳动力供给引入Sidrauski模型,从货币供应量层面分析了货币政策对居民就业的影响。研究发现:如果消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度大于(小于)1,那么扩张性货币政策会促进(抑制)居民就业。考虑到目前中国居民消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,因而政府实施扩张性的货币政策有利于增加居民就业,实证检验也证实了这一结论。但从长期来看,居民消费的相对风险规避程度呈下降趋势,过度依赖于扩张性的货币政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。

This paper analyzed the effect of monetary policy on employment under the general equilibrium analytical framework by applying endogenous labor supply to Sidrauski model. The results were as follows： If the relative degree of risk aversion for consumption is greater（less） than 1, the increase in the money supply will improve （restrain） the amount of employment. Taking into account the current circumstances, the relative degree of risk aversion of Chinese consumers is greater than 1, so the expansionary monetary policy will increase employment, empirical testing has also confirmed this conclusion. However, in the long term, the aversion degree of Chinese consumers will decrease, so the attempt to solve unemployment by adopting expansionary monetary policy will be not feasible.