摘要
利用我国2000年第一季度到2007年第二季度的数据进行实证研究,结果表明我国居民可支配收入和土地价格与房价成正相关关系,而实际利率与房价成负相关关系。据此采用协整分析和H-P滤波,计算了我国房地产均衡价格水平,以及房地产价格偏离均衡价格的程度,认为我国房地产市场价格的偏离主要受部分地区的影响,存在"局部泡沫"。
The paper constructs the theoretic model of house price, makes a positive research on the data from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2007 in China. It concludes that house price in China is positively correlated to disposable income residents and land price, but negatively correlated to real interest rate. It also calculates the equilibrium price of real estate and the deviation extent in China by means of Co - integration Test and H - P Filter. The resuit shows that the deviated price in China is caused mainly by the regional bubbles.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期93-96,共4页
Commercial Research
基金
中国博士后基金
项目编号:20070410474
关键词
房地产价格
偏离程度
协整理论
real estate price
deviation extent
cointegration theory
