环境保护与经济发展双赢的规制绩效实证分析

Regulation Performance of the Win-win of Environmental Protection and Economic Development

环境保护与经济发展的两难、环境承载阈值以及环境问题的负外部性等的存在,昭示以实现社会福利最大化为目标的环境规制的必要。从实证视角看环境规制绩效究竟如何?本文基于山东经验,通过建立计量经济模型和统计测度来进行实证检验。本文选取污染密集产业的区位商、带动值和经济增长贡献率三个指标,对环境规制下污染密集产业的发展状况进行实证分析和评价环境规制绩效。本文得出结论是,山东环境规制严格于全国,并取得一定的规制绩效;严格而系统的环境规制政策,能改变EKC曲线形状和拐点位置;要改变单位产出能耗高、污染排放总量高而导致环境规制压力大的局面,还需配合产业结构配置政策的调整。

Environmental protection and economic development along with the existence of environmental threshold declare publicly the need of environmental regulation. It aims to maximize social welfare. But from the positive perspective how about the performance of environmental regulation is in China？ Based on the experience of Shandong, this article processes positive test by establishing econometric models and statistic estimate. Firstly, we tested the performance of environmental regulation of Shandong province by measuring the fluctuant track of environmental pollution along with the change of economy growth, the difference of EKC in Shandong province and the whole country; next, because the secondary industry, especially the pollution-intensive industries in it occupied large proportion, and according to experiences, environmental regulation has biggish influence to pollution-intensive industries, so this article chooses the location quotient, impetus value and the contribution rate of economy growth to empirically analyze the developing status of pollution-intensive industries; finally, this article educes the conclusions that the environmental regulation of Shandong province is stricter than the whole country, that systemic policy of environmental regulation can change the figure of EKC curve, and that the gross pollution emission must concert with the adjustment on the policy of distribution of the industry structure.