中国经济发展阶段的评价及现阶段的特征分析

Judgment of China's Economic Development Stages and the Analysis of the Characters at the Current Economic Development Stage

对经济发展阶段的划分及其特征的认识,是一国制定科学的经济发展战略、促进经济发展的重要前提之一。本文透过经济发展的内涵确定出我国经济发展阶段评价的内容和指标体系,并且从经济总量水平、经济结构、制度水平的变化以及创新水平四个方面对我国1978～2006年的数据进行整理,同时借助Fisher最优分割法进行系统分析后认为,改革开放30年,我国经济发展经历了四个经济发展阶段,目前正处于第四个阶段。本文探讨了新阶段的基本特征,进而从新阶段经济发展的特征出发,提出我国宏观经济政策和发展思路应进行必要的调整。

Dividing stages of economic development and comprehending their characters is one of the important premises of setting scientific economic development strategies and promoting economic development. This paper determines the content and an index system of China＇s economic development stages through the meaning of development stages; and then, based on the 1978-2006 China ＇ s development data from per capita GDP, economic structures, system level changes and innovation level, this paper holds that China has experienced four stages during the 30-year reform by the Fisher optimal dissection method, and the current development is at the fourth stage; additionally, this paper analyzes the basic features of China＇s current economic development stage. According to the characters of the new stage of economic development, China＇s macroeconomic policies and thoughts need to he adjusted.