摘要
在分析我国高速公路交通事故历史数据的基础上,引入灰色Verhulst预测理论,建立了高速公路交通事故灰色Verhulst预测模型.通过对2000～2007年我国高速公路交通事故死亡人数进行实例分析,发现灰色Verhulst模型的预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型.结果表明,灰色Verhulst模型的预测结果较好的反映了高速公路交通事故的发展趋势,该模型用于高速公路交通事故预测是可行的.
On the basis of analyzing of our freeway traffic accidents data, introducing grey Verhulst prediction theory, the paper establishes the grey Verhulst prediction model of freeway traffic accidents. Through an example of death toll of our freeway traffic accidents in 2000- 2007, the analysis finds that the grey Verhulst model has more forecast precision than the GM （1,1） model. The analysis results show that the prediction of grey Verhulst model reflects the development trend of freeway traffic accidents much better, and it＇s feasible to apply the model to the prediction of freeway traffic accidents.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期92-96,共5页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(50778142)
