气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响研究进展

Advances in the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Plant Species and Vegetation in China

准确预测气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响趋势对于科学认识气候变化对生物多样性的影响和对策制定具有重要的意义。近年来,气候变化对植物及植被分布影响研究在我国广泛展开。文章对这些研究所采用的气候情景、预测方法和气候变化等对植物及植被分布的影响趋势进行了总结分析,对存在的问题进行了讨论,对未来的趋势提出了若干展望。总体上,目前所用气候情景比较单一、不同预测方法比较研究不够,对土壤和生物因素考虑不充分、涉及植物种类太少。气候变化将使一些植物分布范围减少、甚至消失,而使另一些植物分布范围则会扩大。未来研究应加强气候情景改进和不同方法的比较研究,充分考虑土壤和生物等因子、加强预测方法检验,同时开展植物物种多样性和丰富度对气候变化响应方面的研究。

Forecasting plant species and vegetation distribution patterns following climate change accurately is crucial for the realizing the effects of climate change on the biodiversity and formulating the adaptation strategy to conservation biodiversity following changing in climate. In recent years, the effects of the climate change on the distribution of plant species and vegetation were analyzed extensively in China. The climate change scenarios, various forecasting models and the effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species and vegetation were reviewed. The improper and uncertainness of various methods used to analyzing the effects were diseussed, future research emphases were suggested. Generally, the climate change scenarios were too single to be used in analyzing the impacts of climate change. There were no comparison between different forecasting models of plant species and vegetation distribution. The soil and biological factors were not considered in choosing environmental factors in models. The quantity of plant species was too limited to study the effects of climate change on distribution of plant species in China. The climate change would cause the distribution of some plant species decreasing, even some plant species vanished, and some plant species distribution space increasing in China. In future researches, more attention shoud be paid to the accuracy of climate change scenarios and the comparison of the various forecasting models, and the soil and biological factors should be considered. Comprehensively the influence of climate change on plant species diversity and abundance should be investigated in future.