徐州市水资源承载力研究

Study on Water Resource Carrying Capacity of Xuzhou City

结合徐州市经济发展的基本现状和多年统计资料,以工业、农业、生活和生态四个方面需水作为指标体系,采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)模型,以1986年为规划基准年,以2010和2020年为目标年对上述社会经济发展的指标进行了预测。以最大可支撑人口单目标模型为基准,根据灰色预测模型计算出的徐州市目标年人口和对因水资源可承载下的最大人口比较。结果表明,2010年徐州市水资源量是可承载的;2020年,徐州市水资源极其缺乏,无法负担预测人口的正常生活。最后,对徐州市水资源合理利用提出了建议。

According to the present situation of Xuzhou City, four main indices were chosen, including industry, agriculture, living and ecology as water requirement index. Based on the basic present situation of metropolis area economy development and the statistical data research analysis for many years, with the help of this grey predictive model, the main indices of social economy in this area in 2010, 2020 years were predicted. By using the simple target optimization model, of the water resource of Xuzhou City was the only object is to support. The predictive population by using the GM model was compared with the threshold population calculated by the equation, which showed that the water re- source of 2010 year could support the social development while in the year of 2020, the water resource won＇t be sufficient for peoples＇ living. Aiming at the shortage of water resources, some suggestions were put forward for the reasonable utilization of water esources Xuzhou City.