农民收入增长波动关系预测分析:基于小波变换

Predicting in Farmers' Increasing Income Fluctuation by the Wavelet Transform

新农村建设背景下,保持农民收入快速、稳定增长对于构建社会主义和谐社会、不断缩小城乡差距具有重要的战略意义。本文运用小波变换(WT)对1976-2006年间农民收入的波动关系进行预测分析,实证检验结果显示:全国农民人均纯收入增长具有7年和40年左右的特征时间尺度,与农民人均纯收入变化存在着7年和40年两个主要周期振荡保持一致。两个特征时间尺度叠加,可以预见在未来的数年内,全国农民人均纯收入将呈现绝对值快速增长、增长率在波动中有所放缓的特征。最后,文章就如何保持农民收入稳定增长提出了点简短的对策建议。

Under the background of New Countryside＇s Construction, it is very important to keep farmer＇s income growing speedly and stably for Socialist Harmonious Society Construction and the reduction of urban-rural Disparity. We predicte in farmer＇s increasing income fluctuation by the wavelet transform in 1976-2006. The Result shows that：Chinese former income fluctutions appears the characteristic time scale 7 and 40 year keeping Consistent With the periodic oscillation.of 7and 40 years. If this two characters supperpose together, we can easily find that chinese farmer income growth will decrease obviously in several years later. Finally we raise some countermesures on farmers＇ income growth.