摘要
针对各种单一灰色预测方法存在的局限性,建立了一种基于最优加权的灰色组合预测方法。根据我国道路交通事故的发展情况,建立了GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型相结合的组合预测模型,运用最优加权法确定了组合预测模型的权重系数。利用2001—2007年我国道路交通事故数据死亡人数数据,对建立的灰色组合预测模型进行了预测。预测结果表明,组合预测模型比单一的GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型具有更高的预测精度。
Aimed at solving the limitations in various single grey forecasting methods, a combined fore- casting model of road trail% accidents based on optimal weighted method was put forward. According to the characteristics of traffic accident in China, a model combined GM （ 1,1 ） and Verhulst was established, and weight coefficients of combined forecasting model were determined by optimal weighted method. A case was given to verify the effectivity of proposed model with the traffic accident data from 2001 to 2007 in China. The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of combined model is better than that of GM （ 1,1 ） model and Verhulst model.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期37-40,共4页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
福建省青年人才项目(2007F3078)
