全球变化背景下的敏感性研究综述

Review of Sensitivity Research on the Context of Global Change

敏感性研究是全球变化科学研究的重点领域,通过认识全球变化和生态安全之间的相互关系,为人类适应全球变化提供科学依据。基于对敏感性概念的辨析,探讨了全球变化背景下敏感性的科学内涵,提出了敏感性研究的框架,列举了敏感性分析与评价各自的研究方法、对象和目标,从生物学实验、实地观测、计算机模型以及统计分析4个方面系统总结了敏感性分析的方法与实践,概述了非脆弱性和脆弱性框架下的敏感性评价方法与实践。发现在很多研究中敏感性评价是脆弱性框架中的重要一部分,但是评价自然生态系统对环境变化的敏感性则往往不依赖于脆弱性框架,是独立完整的研究。最后总结了敏感性研究的阶段性特征,指出了未来的研究重点和发展方向。

Sensitivity is a hot topic of global change research. It provides scientific basis for human to adapt to global change with the knowledge of the interaction between global change and ecological security. Based on the discussion of the concepts and contents of sensitivity on the context of global change, a research framework of sensitivity was put forward. After enumerating the objects, fields and targets of sensitivity analysis and sensitivity assessment, the methods and practices of sensitivity analysis were systematically summarized from biological experiments, field observations, models and statistical analysis. Meanwhile, an overview of sensitivity assessment through nonvulnerability framework and vulnerability framework were provided. Sensitivity assessment was an important portion of vulnerability framework in many projects, but it also appeared separately when assessing the sensitivity of natural ecosystem to environment changes. Finally, the characteristics of sensitivity research at the present stage were discussed; the emphases and the development direction of sensitivity research were pointed out.