基于成功概率的配电系统可靠性评估新方法

Success probability based reliability assessment of distribution system

针对传统方法对于复杂配电系统建模复杂或难以克服精度与速度关系的问题,提出了一种配电网可靠性评估的新方法。引入"元件平均成功运行概率"的概念,在进行网络拓扑分析的基础上,只需要一次遍历,即可得到负荷点的故障率和成功运行概率,进而可得负荷点的故障持续时间等所有可靠性指标。该方法的网络模型不会因分支馈线的增多而变得复杂,通过简单的数学运算即可快速准确地得到可靠性指标。通过IEEERBTS测试系统中的一条主馈线和一条实际系统馈线的计算,证明了该方法具有原理清晰、编程简单、结果准确、计算快速的特点,可有效地进行配电网可靠性分析。

As the traditional reliability evaluation methods need to build complex model and to balance calculation accuracy and speed,a new reliability assessment algorithm of distribution system is proposed, which applies the concept of ＂component average success probability＂. Based on the network topology analysis and by only one overall search,the failure rate and success probability are calculated,and all other reliability indices of distribution network are then obtained,such as the fault duration of load point. The complexity of the model will not increase when additional feeders are added. Calculations for a main feeder of IEEE RBTS and a real feeder show that,the proposed method is an effective distribution system reliability analysis algorithm.with clear principle ,simple program, and fast and accurate calculation.