中国水产品出口对农业经济增长的效应分析——基于1978～2007年数据的时间序列分析

Effects of aquatic product export on agricultural economic growth

本文根据1978～2007年的统计数据,对水产品出口与农业经济增长之间的动态关系进行了研究。实证研究结果表明,水产品出口与农业经济增长之间存在着一种长期稳定的均衡关系;LNRGOV(农林牧渔业总产值对数值)与LNEXAQ(水产品出口量对数值)之间存在单方面的格兰杰(Granger)因果关系;误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和预测均方误差分解的结果表明,农业经济增长与水产品出口为正向的相关关系,但水产品出口对农业经济增长的拉动作用并不明显,而农业经济增长对水产品出口具有较明显的促进作用。

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the aquatic product export and agricultural economic growth on the basis of statistics from 1978 year to 2004 year in China. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the aquatic product export and agricultural economic growth. There is also a single Granger causal relation between LNRGOV （a logarithm of gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery） and LNEXAQ （a logarithm of aquatic export volume）. Error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition results show that there is a positive relationship between the agricultural economic growth and aquatic product export, but the contribution of aquatic product export to agricultural economic growth is low, and the contribution of agricultural economic growth to aquatic product export is relatively high.