地震灾害系统分析与评估的综合集成模式

Meta-synthesis pattern of analysis and assessment of earthquake disaster system

针对典型开放的复杂巨地震灾害系统,分析其系统的框架、运行、时空等结构特征,论述其开放性、复杂性、高维性、不确定性以及涌现性等整体特性;讨论地震灾害系统的组元、构成元素以及影响因素,构建由专家、机器及知识体系构成的地震灾害分析综合集成研讨厅体系;设计由专家经验、统计数据"实践"所得的"感性认识"到建立模型的"理性认知",论证研究问题框架与模型体系的同构同态的结构性质,再由上机计算(实验)的"再实践"到专家评估、数据处理、修改模型的"再认识"之地震灾害综合集成分析过程;在已有13个世界著名大地震系统分析与评估的基础上,界定地震危险性、区域承灾能力、基本信息、灾害范围、灾害损失、地质环境安全性、资源环境承载力、经济影响、社会影响和减灾效益等十项评估为其必备评估内容,构筑地震灾害系统综合集成评估框架和"人-机-法-术-数"综合集成评估体系,并阐述其实施流程.

The earthquake disaster is a typical open complex giant systems. In this paper, the system is analyzed on the structure features from its framework, motion, and space-time, meanwhile, its entirety characteristics as open, complexity, high dimension, uncertainty, emergence are discussed. On the basis of discussion on the earthquake disaster system＇s components, elements and influencing factors, the Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering, which is composed of specialist system, machine system and knowledge system, is constructed to analyze earthquake disaster, and then designs the Meta-synthesis analyzing processes, which follow the steps： starting from experts＇ experience and data statistics to obtain perceptual cognition, after that, building models to reach rational cognition, and then, re-practicing through computer operation, eventually, via experts＇ assessment, data processing and model modifying to achieve goal on re cognition. Based on the analysis and assessment of the world famous earthquakes, earthquake risk, region disaster bearing capacity, earthquake essential information, disaster influencing scope, geology environmental security, resources environmental carrying capacity, economical influence, social influence and benefit of disaster reduction are summarized to be the essential contents of assessment of earthquake disaster. The framework of meta-synthesis assessment of earthquake disaster system and the ＂men, machine, methods,techniques, data＂ based meta-synthesis assessment system are constructed and depicted.